Alphonso Davies: Left Back Galactico?

Continuing our series analyzing left backs, let’s look at the premier left back on the market linked with Real Madrid.

Previous Editions:

At the age of 19, Alphonso Davies was so dominant he won a treble as a starting left back for Bayern. His speed, recovery ability, dribbling and timing of runs elevated a good Bayern team into a great one that could not be stopped. With Davies’ speed, a backline featuring an aging Jerome Boateng was able to support a very aggressive high line and survive against the continent’s best. 2020 Bayern are one of the most gung-ho attacking teams in the history of football, and Alphonso Davies was a huge part of their attacking game.

In the years since, Bayern have stuttered (they haven’t looked close to the treble winning side in the years since after losing Thiago). Davies has also faced his fair share of injuries over the years. In that same time, Bayern have realized they have overpaid several key talents (like Serge Gnabry), and Davies’ injuries have led to him becoming available as Bayern do not want to match his wage demands.

So, exactly how good is Alphonso Davies in 2024? Is he still the full back that won the treble for Bayern as a teenager? Or has he declined physically because of all the injuries? Or is he the same player as before, but just less available than expected? At what wage would it make sense for Real Madrid to sign him?

Let’s dive in, using Marcelo’s last prime season in the football reference database as a statistical measuring bar.

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TOUCHES:

The most straightforward way to see how often he’s using the ball. Davies started off taking around as many touches as 2017/18 Marcelo, which is a useful precedent for his role at Madrid.

19/20: 85.4

20/21: 89.7

21/22: 81.0

22/23: 80.8

23/24: 84.1

Marcelo 17/18: 87

Splits show Davies would take a slightly higher percentage in the middle and opening 3rd than Marcelo in the final 3rd.

As a starting measure, Davies’ usage rate more or less matching Marcelo is a good sign.

TAKE-ONS:

Successful take-ons and success rate:

19/20: 3.3, 65.5%

20/21: 3.49, 69.2%

21/22: 4.35, 67.7%

22/23: 3.16, 52.0%

23/24: 2.9, 57.8%

Marcelo 2017/18: 1.2, 53.8% success rate

So it appears Davies takes on opponents more successfully and frequently than Marcelo did in 2017/18 onwards.

Of course, it’s important to caveat this heavily with context: Marcelo’s style of dribbling wasn’t always direct like a winger. He didn’t look to square up his man 1v1 and beat him, instead he would end up receiving the ball in uncomfortable situations and routinely carry, dribble or pass through the entire network of pressure without letting the opposition get too many challenges off on him in the first place. He could evade challenges, and had burst, but wasn’t used like an isolation winger.

Marcelo’s specialty was the one-touch to evade his man and control a long ball simultaneously, the flick that let him control a switch and change direction and leave his marker in the dust before they realize he has the technical capacity to do such a thing. Marcelo was also exceptional at dribbling into pressure and releasing the ball, whereas Davies seems to act as a bit more of an outlet.

Going back through through clips, the main difference I discern here is that Davies is more likely to beat a defender an extra time per game just off the strength of his pace against more open Bundesliga defenses, and that since we don’t have Marcelo 2015/16 and 2016/17 data, we don’t realize how similar they are in this metric when comparing prime for prime. There are some small differences between whoscored and football reference’s database, including the seasons they each span, but whoscored tells a clear story of 2014/15 and 2015/16 Marcelo dribbling more than the next 2 editions.

CARRIES are a great way to look deeper into differences between their dribbling style and efficacy.

Davies:

19/20: 49.6

20/21: 53.8

21/22: 50.9

22/23: 52.7

23/24: 54.2

Marcelo 17/18: 58

Davies carried the ball about 300-330 yards per game in each of his seasons, whereas Marcelo carried it around 270 yards in 2017/18, presenting a solid 30-60 yard difference per game. While that may have been a function of his and Real Madrid’s team-wide decline, it may have also been a result of Marcelo receiving less on the move in very vertical distances, and more horizontally, slowly, against deep blocks that aren’t harassing him as closely as Bundesliga defenses.

Which is to say, Marcelo 2014-2017 may have still carried the ball less distance than Davies, but that Davies’ figures may end up trending in the same direction upon a move to La Liga. This is born out in the gap between their progressive carries (which only measures the carries that move the ball 10+ yards closer to goal):

PROGRESSIVE CARRIES:

19/20: 5.2

20/21: 4.53

21/22: 5.81

22/23: 5.07

23/24: 4.65

Marcelo 17/18: 3.92

PRESS RESISTANCE

So far, we haven’t made too many notes about the press-resistance of either of these two in buildup. This is because we had to give Davies a fair chance: Marcelo is the most press-resistant full back in the history of football, and was capable of carrying his teams through buildup situations in a way that we’ve seldom seen.

If we had to create a continuum of modern elite offensive full backs: Trent is a pure creative playmaker, so good that his team has reoriented around his actions as much as possible to allow him to play that role. Marcelo, on the other spectrum, was an incredible dribbler, buildup player and middle 3rd creator who’s job was to ensure the team arrived in the final third in comfortable fashion. Marcelo helped control games. In that spectrum I’d argue peak Dani Alves was a bit of a final third playmaker and dribbler built into one – good for buildup, good in the box, key in both.

Davies, even though the metrics are similar, might be closer to Dani Alves than Marcelo. He still has Marcelo’s 1-2 touches to evade a press, and the dribbling ability to arrive in the box, and is a protagonist in buildup, but I do find it interesting that he receives the ball a bit less than Marcelo:

RECEPTIONS:

19/20: 52.6

20/21: 57.9

21/22: 52.3

22/23: 52.8

23/24: 57.6

Marcelo 2017/18: 64.4

PROGRESSIVE RECEPTIONS:

19/20: 7.06

20/21: 6.59

21/22: 10.6

22/23: 7.24

23/24: 5.62

Marcelo 2017/18: 9.97

This is interesting, indicating that Marcelo was used as a release valve a bit more than Davies in possession, outside Julian Nagelsmann’s solitary full season in charge, when Davies received over 10 progressive receptions per game and occupied more advanced spaces consistently.

PASSING

Acting as more of an outlet who recycles at times, Davies is more conservative than Marcelo in possession.

Pass Completions and Accuracy:

Davies:

19/20: 61.7, 86%

20/21: 68.3, 88.4%

21/22: 55.8, 83.6%

22/23: 58.5, 87.4%

23/24: 63.5, 87.9%

Marcelo 2017/18: 62, 79.3%

Acting as more of an outlet who recycles at times, Davies is more conservative than Marcelo in possession. While he does have the touches and speed to beat his man more often, Davies has been used more like a steamroller in possession, whereas Marcelo was just more of a dancer who loved teasing the opposition by receiving the ball with seemingly dangerous angles, only to take it away from them with his latest show of technique.

Considering how they would still carry the ball into the box a similar amount, and take similar volume of touches, let’s discern differences better here by looking at their goal threat.

Expected Goals, Expected Assisted Goals (p90):

Davies:

19/20: 0.08, 0.21

20/21: 0.01, 0.10

21/22: 0.06, 0.21

22/23: 0.07, 0.15

23/24: 0.02, 0.09

Marcelo 2017/18: 0.13, 0.23

So Marcelo’s last season of his prime at Real Madrid eclipses any of Davies’ season to date from a shot and goal creation perspective. Interesting to observe, and indicative of the Brazilian’s superior flair and creativity in both technique and the intent with which Real Madrid deployed him.

Marcelo was given a unique creative license in the final third because of how much he’d overwhelm teams. The downside of this was that he’d sometimes get caught out in defensive transition, especially because, as one could see with his pass accuracy, Marcelo was in charge of both getting the ball to the final third without losing it and to an extent making things happen in the final third. For a long time he felt like the team’s chief final third instigator.

Davies has been asked to arrive in the final third, is welcome to slalom forward 10 yards, but is not sought out as often in buildup, and not asked to take as many creative risks, and takes a lesser proportion of his touches in advanced areas. As an ex-winger, Davies may well have the ability to offer more in this area, and may well develop elements of a slow, possession-oriented creative flair to his game upon a move to Spain, but he hasn’t been asked to feature all this nearly as much as Marcelo was before.

DEFENSE:

The upside of Davies not having to shoulder as large a final third responsibility, and his speed allowing him to join attacking actions while still covering back, is that in theory he can add a lot more value than Marcelo defensively. He won’t find himself in the final third when his team lose the ball nearly as often as Marcelo, and has the recovery speed to get back and win duels.

TACKLES AGAINST DRIBBLERS + SUCCESS RATE:

Davies:

19/20: 1.54, 63.3%

20/21: 1.42, 66%

21/22: 0.65, 44.4%

22/23: 0.92, 50%

23/24: 1.06, 46%

Marcelo 2017/18: 0.87, 36.9%

So, on one hand, all of Davies’ defensive metrics against dribblers compare with or supersede Marcelo 2017/18. On the other hand, Davies himself peaked in this facet his first season at Bayern. This may be partly influenced by team approach, as Flick’s first Bayern side saw him win almost a tackle per game in the final third, before Nagelsmann and Tuchel dialed back the approach.

INTERCEPTIONS:

Davies

19/20: 1.37

20/21: 1.46

21/22: 1.26

22/23: 1.23

23/24: 0.98

Marcelo 2017/18: 1.24

Davies’ clearances and interceptions are steady, it’s primarily the linear decline in his tackling figures that’re concerning here. Some within Bayern feel their eye test corroborates this decline clearly, others are not so sure.

CONCLUSIONS

Davies’ usage rate, dribbling ability, press resistance and technique all compare favorably to Marcelo, arguably the most devastating offensive left back ever seen.

Davies wouldn’t alter Real Madrid’s defensive mechanics too much (transition defense shape would largely be the same), while being an immediate upgrade on Ferland Mendy offensively, and an upgrade on Fran Garcia defensively.

Zooming in further one can see Davies is a bit more conservative in pass and shot selection, a bit more aggressive with his runs as an outlet into open space, and overall has a higher defensive ceiling and profiles more as a two-way, off-ball oriented full back than Marcelo while still offering better on-ball ability than most full backs in the history of football.

The 2 major question marks are the source of the decline in his tackling numbers and his injury history, which may be connected.

Attached is his injury history: Davies has missed time due to torn ligaments, ankle injuries, and a torn muscle bundle since he won the treble. This is more concerning than the heart issue, as Davies is seeking to be paid as the best left back on the market.

Transfermarkt

For a player to be paid as the best at their position, they should reasonably play 35-40 90s per season. Since playing 38 full 90s in Bayern’s treble year, Davies has hardly crossed 30 full 90s any season since.

In isolation, signing Davies is gambling on his health coming good. The decline in his defensive metrics, and even his lack of further growth in the final third, could be solely attributed to his injuries. One full injury free season is not too far away, and would alter estimations of the value he adds over a 5-7 year period considerably. However, a couple more injury prone situations would similarly change valuations of his impact, meaning anyone who signs Davies has to accept that in many ways this is a crossroads for his career.

The risk-reward of this signing may come down to something as simple as Davies’ off-pitch discipline and physicals. If you know he’ll put in the effort to take care of himself, pull the trigger and don’t even worry about the injuries resurfacing. But it’s not simple. The answer to the cause of his injuries will always be in a grey area that intersects genetics, luck, fortune, exact biological parameters etc in a way that even the player or club cannot control at the moment of making decisions.

Any contract offer should then account for those risks. Which is aligned with the reporting: Real Madrid have not offered Davies as much as Bayern Munich themselves.

If Davies signs for Real Madrid, expect it to be on wages that are a tad lower than those he sought from Bayern, preserving a meritocratic wage structure the Real Madrid and Florentino Perez way.